Back off, Donald Trump. Canada's not for the taking.

Ottawa should stand up, and strike first.

It started as a joke, but it’s not funny anymore. At a rambling press conference on Tuesday, US president-elect Donald Trump made his intentions clear: he would use “economic force” to make Canada the 51^st state. “Canada and the United States: That would be really something,” Trump opined. “You get rid of that artificially drawn line and you take a look at what that looks like.”

Trump’s weapon? Twenty-five per cent tariffs on all Canadian goods. That might sound bad for American consumers, but according to him, they don’t need our stuff anyway.

“We don’t need their cars. … We don’t need their lumber,” Trump said. “We have massive fields of lumber… We don’t need their dairy products. We have more than they have.”

This is, of course, a giant lie. Canada has plenty of things America needs, including raw materials like oil and food that it refines and transforms. That transformation generates millions of well-paying US industrial and manufacturing jobs. The US also imports nearly $5 billion in fertilizer to boost agricultural production.

And if we don’t have anything America needs, why would Trump want to annex us? Because, he claims, the US trade deficit with Canada is a “subsidy.” Trump asks, “Why are we losing $200 billion dollars a year and more to protect Canada?”

This is a second lie. First of all, trade deficits are not subsidies. A trade deficit represents the difference in the value of imports and exports. Second, the US trade deficit with Canada isn’t $200 billion, or even the $100 billion figure Trump has previously used. In 2023, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, it was $USD 41 billion. And if you remove energy exports, the US actually runs a surplus with us, not a deficit. Energy exports accounted for over $177 billion of Canada’s exports south of the border. Twenty-eight per cent of what we export is energy, namely, over four million barrels per day of oil, the largest amount from any country in the world.

Trump is correct that Canada has benefitted from the American military’s umbrella. We benefit by proximity, because we happen to be next to the US – just like Americans benefit from buying our discounted crude oil, because they happen to be next to us. The US would maintain their military whether we were neighbours or not. They wouldn’t have a smaller military if they annexed Canada; if anything, they’d spend more, because they would be actively engaged across our entire landmass, directly defending our borders. We have also been a steadfast ally in times of war, a fact Trump handily omits.

So Trump’s argument is a lie, but a clever lie. It’s something that will resonate with his voters, with the average American struggling to pay their bills. It’s purportedly about fairness, doing what’s right. Not taking over a sovereign nation, but returning to Americans what’s rightfully theirs.

It’s like Putin saying that the Donbas is full of Russians, so it really should be part of Russia. Or Xi Jinping saying that Taiwan is really part of China, so the two countries should be “reunified.”

It’s also cover for the real reason Trump would like to take over Canada: because we do have a lot of what the US needs, namely oil, water, and critical minerals. He would love to take control of the Arctic, ostensibly for security reasons, but really for the resources that lie beneath. Drill, baby, drill. But Trump can’t say that part out loud, because then he sounds like a communist dictator, not the leader of the free world.

Trump wants to use tariffs to break Canada. Our GDP could drop by two to four per cent and put us in an official recession. Two and half million jobs would be at risk. People would get poorer at a time when two million of us are already using food banks. Throw in a simultaneous diet of pro-annexation propaganda pumped out by Trump’s friends on social media, and the blathering of front groups funded by vested interests, and the 13% of Canadians who favour joining the US could swell to the point where they put political pressure on Ottawa to cave to Trump’s demands.

And then, all bets are off. Trump figures Canadians will beg to join the US, and he may not be wrong. Manifest destiny, achieved - and a YUGE legacy for him.

So what should Canada do?

Stand up, and strike first.

When the schoolyard bully says he’s going to hit you, don’t wait to be hit. Punch him in the nose. Hard. Because he doesn’t expect it. And then fight like hell.

Canada shouldn’t wait for Trump to impose tariffs. We should impose tariffs now, before he takes office. Let the Americans see how it feels to be on the receiving end. Tariff the same list as last time: their orange juice, their bourbon, their ketchup, their playing cards, their appliances, their plywood and steel. Turn off the cheap energy taps (would American consumers really like to pay more at the pumps?). Bombard them with social media campaigns and advertising blaming Trump for this situation. Tell them how many millions of jobs will be imperilled if they slap 25% tariffs on us. Make it clear that we aren’t going to lie down and take his abuse. Make them not want us, because we’re way too much trouble - and they’ll feel it in their pocketbook too.

But wait you say – isn’t our government not operational right now? Didn’t Prime Minister Justin Trudeau just prorogue Parliament? Yes, but mercifully, Parliament doesn’t have to be sitting to do these things. The Prime Minister can authorize tariffs without the approval of the House of Commons, like Trudeau did in 2018. Spending bills can even be authorized by special warrants of the Governor General at the PM’s request.

So even though Trudeau is playing narcissistic political games, it doesn’t matter. He can still act like a leader in the time he has left.

And there is no time to waste. The inauguration is in 12 days. We need to say: Back off, Donald Trump. Canada is not for the taking.