Is Canada the next Ukraine?

Donald Trump’s motive isn’t fentanyl, it's territory. Here's how we can stop him.

On Saturday, the United States declared economic war on Canada. Starting February 4, Washington will apply 25% tariffs on all Canadian imports, apart from energy, which will be tariffed at 10%.

The effects of this will be dire. Canadian GDP is predicted to drop 2 to 4 per cent. In two quarters our country could be a recession. The North American automotive supply chain sector could shut down within the week. Two and half million Canadian jobs are at risk.

In response, Ottawa has pledged to retaliate with 25% tariffs on $155 billion of American goods, ranging from orange juice to appliances. Thirty billion dollars’ worth will be hit immediately, the rest in three weeks. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau also referenced possible nontariff measures relating to energy and procurement. There is also talk of finally dismantling internal trade barriers, and some provinces are pulling American liquor from their shelves.

Why is this war happening? Over the past month, US President Donald Trump has given four reasons. These include Canada’s failure to crack down on fentanyl, to keep a secure border, and to meet NATO’s 2% of GDP target on defense spending. To add insult to injury, in Trump’s mind, is that the US “subsidizes” Canada, due to its trade deficit which Trump pegs at $USD 200 billion a year.

Is there any validity to these arguments? Well, the last one is a bald-faced lie. Canada’s trade surplus with the US isn’t a subsidy, and it’s just north of $50 billion, not $200 billion. And if you subtract energy from the total, the US runs a surplus.

On the other three points, Canada has work to do. We have been a NATO laggard for far too long, currently spending 1.4%, but we did announce in January that we plan to meet the 2% target in two years.

As for fentanyl, last year, American courts fined TD Bank $USD 3 billion for conduct which “endangered American lives and helped dangerous criminals from China and elsewhere expand their fentanyl trafficking operations in the U.S.”, according to Democratic Senators Ron Wyden and Elizabeth Warren. This week, the Financial Transactions and Reports Analysis Centre of Canada (FINTRAC) published an alert warning that criminals are laundering fentanyl proceeds through online casinos and payment processors in several countries, including Canada.

With regards to immigration and the border, in 2024 the US apprehended 233 suspected terrorists at the 49^th parallel, who evaded authorities thanks to our inadequate immigration system that isn’t properly vetting applicants, including thousands of refugees from Gaza, as pointed out by Republican Senator, now Secretary of State, Marco Rubio.

Ottawa knew these last three things were a problem. The December 2024 Fall Economic Statement included $1.3 billion worth of measures to tackle cross border drug crime, as well as human trafficking, modern slavery, and border security issues. The government also boosted FINTRAC’s powers, and signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the US allowing FINTRAC to collaborate with American agencies to fight money laundering. And Ottawa moved up meeting the NATO spending target by five years, to 2027.

In other words, we were cooperating. So why did Trump proceed with tariffs anyway?

It’s like hitting your friend after he agrees to help you. If the US is still Canada’s ally, it should work with Canada to strengthen the border, not penalize its people. If Washington is mad at Canadian banks for laundering money, it should sanction them, not the country’s entire economy. Tariffs will do nothing to stop the flow of fentanyl, criminals and terrorists. But they will achieve other objectives.

The common wisdom is that Trump needs tariff revenue to fund his tax cuts, and to reduce America’ burgeoning budget deficit. But there could well be another reason.

In his grandiloquent inaugural address, Trump spoke of America’s golden age, manifest destiny, and territorial expansion. He insists that America must buy Greenland. He wants to retake the Panama Canal and has renamed the Gulf of Mexico the “Gulf of America.” He has repeatedly referred to Canada as “the 51st state” and said of our border “You get rid of that artificially drawn line, and you take a look at what that looks like, and it would also be much better for national security."

Put this together, and it’s not hard to see how tariffs could be part of a larger plan: the annexation of Canada, allegedly to protect Americans from crime and disorder.

How would this happen? The natural assumption is that Trump’s tariffs would hurt Canadians so badly we would have no choice but to agree to terms of annexation. But that might not come to pass. Already Canadians are getting angry. They are booing the American national anthem and cancelling their US vacations. Trump has aroused a sense of Canadian patriotism that we haven’t seen in years. We plan to fight back and fight hard. And we will hurt Americans where it counts: in their wallet.

Canadian political leaders assume that hurting Americans could force Trump to change his mind and negotiate a mutual end to the tariffs. For a while, I did too. But based on the text of his executive order, I have my doubts.

First, Trump’s order contains a tariff escalation clause authorizing the President to “increase or expand in scope the duties imposed under this order to ensure the efficacy of this action” should Canada retaliate with tariffs on US imports. In other words, up the pain on his own people.

Second, the order authorizes the Secretary of Homeland Security, in coordination with the Secretary of State, the Attorney General, the Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs, and the Assistant to the President for Homeland Security, to “recommend additional action, if necessary, should the Government of Canada fail to take adequate steps to alleviate the illegal migration and illicit drug crises through cooperative enforcement actions.”

“Additional action” is undefined, as is the determination of “adequate steps”. In other words, both are whatever Trump deems them to be. But it doesn’t take much imagination to think what they could mean.

Trump doesn’t want to negotiate. Trump wants a win. He wants a golden age. He wants to expand America’s territory. He wants things the country needs for its national security. Things like cheaper energy, greater water supply, or access to critical minerals. All things you find in…. Canada.

But Trump couldn’t act without a pretext. So, Trump has set Canada up to be the bad guy. Trump will be able to leverage Americans’ economic pain – which he now acknowledges will come - and turn Canada’s newfound patriotism against it. He could claim that our tariffs are hurting the American people, while the flow of fentanyl has not ceased. He could then authorize the US military to enter Canada and annex our country, to erase the “artifical line” that separates us, and make us the 51st state, for the good of American patriots and the free world.

And that’s when Canada turns into Ukraine.

Think it’s extreme? Think it’s impossible? Think again. Would we have imagined a year ago that the President of the United States would be openly musing about buying other countries? That Elon Musk would be running part of the US government? That RFK Jr would be health secretary?

Nothing is impossible anymore. We are living in the Upside Down, and the sooner we accept that fact, the better.

So sure, Canada should do all the things we need to do to crack down on transnational crime and strengthen our border. We should also do everything to bolster our economy against this tariff crisis. Let’s immediately drop interprovincial trade barriers. Let’s cut taxes. Let’s buy Canadian. Let’s seek out other trade partnerships and diversify our markets.

But let’s also prepare a Plan B.

First, let’s take the case to the courts. Not here, but in America. President Donald Trump's order is based on his invocation of the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), but critics argue there's no clear connection between the fentanyl and illegal immigration “emergencies” and the tariffs. Industry groups in the US may launch court challenges to block the order and the tariffs – and we should support them.

Second, we should ready our armed forces for the worst-case scenario. Let’s be more trouble than we’re worth. Yes, we’re David and the US is Goliath. Yes, Trump is an oligarch in the mold of Russian President Vladimir Putin. But Trump’s a businessman, not ex KGB. If we do nothing, we’re done like dinner. But if we look like we’ll put up a fight, maybe, just maybe, Trump will conclude we’re not as appetizing a morsel to swallow.

Third, we need to hang in there until the US midterms in 2026. If America’s Golden Age fails to materialize, prices rise and problems multiply, voters may become disillusioned. Right now, Trump has both houses of Congress, and they are doing whatever he wants, regardless even if he overrules them. But in 2026 Trump could lose the House of Representatives, and then it’s a different ball game.

Finally, we must stand together. It's time to rediscover our patriotism. It’s time to pull out all the stops. We are Canadian. And we must defend our country against those who do us harm. Even if they once were our friends.