Down but not out: Why Justin Trudeau could surprise us yet
There are a hundred reasons the Liberals should lose the next election. And three ways they could win.
Woe is Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. The latest polls show his stock crashing harder than Yevgeny Prigozhin’s airplane. Abacus Data has the Conservatives leading the Liberals 38 to 25 percent while “only 27% think the Prime Minister should run again.” Mainstreet Research pegs the Tories at 41 percent to 28 for the Liberals, while only 37 percent of those polled have a “very favourable” or “favourable” impression of the Liberal leader. Poll aggregator 338Canada.com predicts the Conservatives would be most likely to form government with between 132 and 199 seats in the House of Commons, while the Liberals would take between 81 and 144.
None of this is surprising. This government has held power for eight years, three elections, and one pandemic. Trudeau is overexposed, and Canadians are exhausted. Increasing numbers can’t afford housing or food, can’t get health care in a timely manner, and feel unsafe on public transit or in their neighborhood. The Prime Minister and his cabinet have racked up a fulsome scandal sheet with few consequences. “Fuck Trudeau” has become a bumper sticker. If the opposition weren’t ahead at this point, something would be very, very wrong.
But those who would write the PM off should take a pause. There is nothing quite as desperate as a politician on the ropes. Power is their lifeblood, and they will do anything to ensure a safe supply. It took years to dislodge former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnston from his perch; former US President Donald Trump still threatens a glowering comeback. Just when you thought voters have come to their senses, they manage to prove you wrong.
So, if you are running the Liberal party and want to win the next election, what do you do? Answer: Keep control - of the date, the issues, and the narrative. And to do that, you need to take three important steps. Let’s game those out now.
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